WZBC Bets: Week 3

WZBC Bets: Week 3

September 19, 2020 · by · in Football

Empty stadiums, opt-outs, and no Pac 12 (for now). The 2020 college football season is shaping up to be one unlike any other. Amid all the chaos and uncertainty caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, college football has managed to get its season underway, albeit with each conference following its own timeline. The ACC started up last week, with 11 of the 15 (yes, we have to include Notre Dame) teams seeing action. This week is an even more important week for WZBC readers, because Boston College kicks off it’s highly-anticipated season at Duke (a game preview can be found here).

In honor of that, we’re kicking off our annual WZBC staff picks. Last season, WZBC brought you some of our weekly football picks. This year, to add a new flair, we’re offering our picks against the spread. There’ll be five or so games chosen each week, as well as a superdog (a touchdown-or-more underdog who we expect to win outright).

Enjoy the selections, and happy football season to all!

Syracuse at No. 25 Pitt (-21.5)

Name: Danny Hornby

Pick: Syracuse (+21.5)

Analysis: Syracuse managed to hang with UNC and one of the top QBs in the country in Sam Howell last week for about 3 quarters. If you look at the final box score you’ll see a 31-6 blowout loss but that doesn’t tell the full story. I don’t expect Syracuse to score more than 14, but if they can play defense anywhere near what they did the majority of last week, they should cover. Under 50 is probably the best bet for this game.

Name: Giovanni Canales

Pick: Syracuse (+21.5)

Analysis: As Danny said, Syracuse’s loss last week doesn’t give the full story. They have arguably the best safety in the NCAA and their defense gave Sam Howell some trouble. Pitt’s Kenny Pickett is a decent quarterback, but he is no Sam Howell. Syracuse had a hard time moving the ball against UNC resulting in QB Tommy DeVito heading to the bench. The Orange aren’t going to score much, but as long as their defense can avoid big plays they can cover the spread.

Name: Matthew Koo

Pick: Syracuse (+ 21.5) 

Analysis: Although the box score shows a blowout, there’s more to the story than meets the eye in Syracuse’s 31-6 loss last week against UNC. Syracuse quarterback Tommy DeVito hasn’t thrown an interception in 201 straight passes and I expect this trend to continue as he has to play a smart, safe game if Syracuse wants any chance to hang around. On the other side of the ball, Pitt looked dominant in their opening win against Austin Peay. Quarterback Kenny Pickett played a tidy game and the defense did it’s job against an inferior opponent. I think that Pitt should win this game easily, but Syracuse’s defense should do just enough to keep them within 3 touchdowns.  Redshirt freshman Garrett Williams played a very good game last week for Syracuse, totaling nine tackles and a pass breakup. 

Boston College at. Duke (-5.5)

Name: Alex Sayfie

Pick: BC

Analysis: In Hafley We Trust

https://twitter.com/BCFootball/status/1307089931173531649

Name: Jack Coleman

Pick: BC

Analysis: The Phil-Hafley era begins on a high with BC’s first ACC win. Duke looked a little scary at times against ND last week, and Chase Brice will most likely cause some problems for us behind his high caliber coaching staff. It’s a coaching battle here and Hafgoat takes it. 

Name: Stephen Palmer

Pick: Duke (-5.5) 

Analysis: Boston College football has seen a lot of turnover in the past year, losing their head coach, starting QB, and starting RB from last year’s team. In addition, BC had off week one and they’re lacking the game experience that Duke gained in their loss to Notre Dame. I think Boston College’s football future is bright, and they may soon be a contender in the ACC. However, it’ll take a few weeks for coach Hafley to right the ship. Duke is a team that looked more than capable against Notre Dame, and they’ll take advantage of the uncertainty surrounding Hafley’s squad in game one. Duke -5.5 is the pick. 

Name: Danny Hornby

Pick: (BC +5.5)

Analysis: Number one key to this game is going to be the turnover battle. Duke forced Ian Book to turn the ball over twice in their week 2 loss to ND. If BC’s QB who is still technically a TBD turns the ball over twice, they will lose. However I trust that the Eagles will be able to establish the run with David Bailey, who won’t be as big of a step down from AJ Dillon as some may expect. This offensive line for BC will show up and lead Bailey to 100+ yards rushing. Hopefully Hafley can have the DBs ready for one of their toughest tests in Chase Brice.

Name: Patrick Cadogan

Pick: Duke (-5.5)

Analysis: This is a tough game to pick with a line that has moved around quite a bit in the last few days. Clemson transfer Chase Brice is a substantial upgrade at the quarterback position for Duke over the graduated Quentin Harris. While Brice didn’t wow me against Notre Dame in Week 2, he is more than capable of consistently moving the chains against BC, who will need to show substantial improvement in the secondary from last season. The uncertainty of who Boston College’s starting QB is this Saturday should unnerve BC fans who anointed Phil Jurkovec the new starter the moment he stepped on campus this past winter. Don’t be surprised if we see Dennis Grosel under center against Duke. The new-look pro style offense under Frank Cignetti could catch Duke by surprise due to the lack of game film, but I can also see Duke’s strong defensive line headlined by Chris Rumph II creating issues for Boston College. BC returns one of the best offensive lines in the nation with four 2019 All-ACC selections, but they moved star interior lineman Zion Johnson to left tackle and shifted Ben Petrula inside. Will tinkering with a good thing work out? It’s a risky bet by new OL coach Matt Applebaum, as Duke more than held their own against Notre Dame’s strong OL last weekend. BC’s defensive line failed to consistently generate pressure in 2019, but they added Chibueze Onwuka from Buffalo and Luc Bequette from Cal on the transfer market this offseason. If this reshaped group can take advantage of a Duke offensive line weakened by an ACL injury to center Jack Wohlabaugh, BC can win. However, I’ll take Duke to cover this game simply because there are too many unknown variables in play for BC. Let’s hope for some good surprises this weekend in Jeff Hafley’s head coaching debut. 

No. 14 UCF (-7.5) at. Georgia Tech

Name: Mike Pribe

Pick: No. 14 UCF (-7.5)

Analysis: Georgia Tech upset Florida State in Week 2. However, when you really look into it, FSU is horrible. The UCF Knights went 10-3 last year after having undefeated regular seasons in 2017 and 2018. Dillon Gabriel is returning, and he threw for 3,653 yards and 39 TDs in just his freshman year. When Gabriel is throwing to Tre Nixon, Marlon Williams and Otis Anderson, I cannot bet against the Knights winning by more than a touchdown against the Yellow Jackets. 

Name:Danny Hornby

Pick: GT (+7.5)

Analysis: While many see last week as more FSU blowing it than GT playing well, you have to respect the defense they played. This team is jacked up to shock some people this year. They have the most returning production in the ACC with 84% (ESPN). UCF was just 3-3 on the road last year with the wins coming against FL Atlantic, Temple, and Tulane. I expect GT to keep it close and maybe win their second game of 2020.

Name: Stephen Palmer

Pick: No. 14 UCF (-7.5)

Analysis: This line is disrespectful to a UCF team that went 10-3 last year. Many will look at the GT upset of FSU and say that the same can happen against this UCF squad. Dillon Gabriel will silence GT believers quickly. UCF’s passing attack will overwhelm the Yellow Jackets, and the defense will shut down any GT attack. This game will be over in the first half, and UCF will cruise to an easy victory. UCF -7.5 is the pick. 

No. 17 Miami at No. 18 Louisville (-2.5)

Name: Danny Hornby

Pick: Louisville (-2.5)

Analysis: I’m expecting a shootout in this game with great QBs on both sides in Cunningham and King. Louisville is an explosive big play team with a top receiver in the country in Tutu Atwell. Miami did not look exactly dominant in their week 2 win over UAB. Also I’ve been generally low on Manny Diaz and the canes the past few years. I just don’t see them outpacing Louisville’s offense.

Name: Stephen Palmer

Pick: Louisville (-2.5)

Analysis: This game will be high scoring, and it’ll come down to whoever can exploit the other team’s weaknesses more. Miami’s rushing attack looked phenomenal against UAB, as they rumbled for over 330 rushing yards. The Louisville run defense may not be up to the task, and it’ll be a struggle for the unit throughout the game. However, Louisville will look to take advantage of Miami’s poor pass defense. Micale Cunningham looked great against WKU as he threw for over 300 yards. Before Tyler Johnston got hurt, the Miami pass defense didn’t exactly look stout. Micale Cunningham will expose the Miami Defense and the Louisville offense will put at least 30 on the board. It’s up to the Louisville run defense to win this game, and as long as they can put up a little resistance, the Miami offense won’t keep pace with Louisville. I’m predicting a 34-27 win for the Cards. Louisville -2.5 is the pick. 

Name: Andrew Kynes 

Pick: Louisville (-2.5) 

Analysis: The Cards host the Hurricanes of Miami this Saturday in prime time. Second year UofL coach Scott Satterfield has completely turned around a program that was 2-10 just two years ago. Additionally, the Louisville quarterback, Malik Cunningham, is a budding star in the QB rich ACC. With Miami’s best defensive player opted-out, look for the Cardinals offense to put up big numbers through the air and outlast D’eriq King and a Canes offense that looked lackluster at times despite scoring 31 vs. UAB in week 1.

Wake Forest at NC State (-2.5)

Name:Wake Forest (+2.5)

Pick:Danny Hornby

Analysis: Hard to judge Wake based on last week facing Clemson where they struggled for the majority of the game. Last year in this match up Wake managed to win by 34 points at home. At the end of the day I just trust Hartman more than Leary to keep them in this game. It should be close but I’m picking Wake to win outright.

Name: Patrick Cadogan

Pick: Wake Forest (+2.5)

Analysis: Not much worked for Wake against Clemson, but one great takeaway for Wake was the breakout performance of redshirt freshman WR Taylor Morin, who hauled in 9 receptions for 93 yards in the first start of his career. While some of this production came long after Clemson had taken their foot off the gas, it was necessary for Wake to find a fresh new target for Hartman after star WR Sage Surratt opted out of the 2020 season to declare for the NFL Draft. In this odd college season, already having played your first game is a benefit after practices and workouts were disrupted during the summer, giving an edge to Wake Forest. NC State turned to QB Devin Leary in a lost 2019 season for them, and while he should be a productive college player, he is still young and inexperienced. That’s not to say Hartman is a seasoned vet, but he is still more battle-tested than Leary. I’ll roll with Wake to cover and win outright this week.

 Superdog (7-Plus Point Underdog who can win outright):

Name: Danny Hornby

Superdog: Georgia St. (+17) (vs. Luisiana-Lafayette) ML (+540)

Analysis: Small card this week and not many dogs to pick from. This pick is solely based on the obvious let down spot for ULL who pulled the massive upset over an ranked and trendy pick in ISU. From the most recent update I can find Ga. st will welcome a 50% fan capacity Saturday. I see the Panthers getting up at home vs a ranked opponent who doesn’t scare them with a big name. Expect this game to be close for at least the first half.

Name: Mike Pribe

Superdog: Navy (+7) (vs. Tulane)

Analysis: After getting absolutely obliterated by BYU and Zach Wilson, I am betting Navy to straight up beat Tulane for this week, and win back their redemption in upset fashion. 

Name: Stephen Palmer

Superdog: Navy (+7)

Analysis: Navy got steamrolled by BYU, but that was two weeks ago. In that time, Navy began contact practice. This will help the notorious Navy rushing attack, and I think we see a much different Navy team on Saturday. Tulane didn’t look strong in their last game, and quite frankly, they looked slow in the second half. This won’t bode well against the grueling Navy rushing attack. Navy will utilize their run game to grind the clock and get tough yards. Scoring opportunities will open more in the second half. Navy wins this game outright. I’d look to bet Navy +220 and Navy +7. 

Name: Ethan Ott

Superdog: Georgia Tech (+7.5) (vs. UCF)

Analysis: Georgia Tech is fresh off an unlikely victory against FSU last week and is looking to bring the same luck into their second game of the season against no.14 UCF. This will not be an easy game for Georgia Tech by any means, but if they can slow down UCF’s offense, it is one they can win. Both teams are headed by true freshman quarterbacks this year, so the one game of experience GT has on UCF could be key in the outcome. Georgia Tech also has home field advantage with limited fans, so expect that to come in to play in their favor as well. Georgia Tech ranked last in the ACC preseason poll, but expect them to put up a fight against UCF as they go for their second straight upset.

Assorted Picks (and one NFL Selection):

Tulsa at No. 11 Oklahoma State (-23)

Name: Mike Pribe

Pick: Oklahoma State (-23)

Analysis: With this game initially postponed, the Cowboys were able to rest their high-powered offense an extra week. OK State will go into this game wanting to put on a show, and Mike Gundy will lead Tylan Wallace, Chuba Hubbard, and Spencer Sanders to a blowout win, and easily cover the spread over Tulsa. 

Name: Ethan Ott

Pick: Georgia State + 17.0

Analysis: Last week, Louisiana surprised fans with an upset victory of then no. 23 Iowa State and sprung to no. 19 on this week’s rankings – their first time ranked since wwii. They go into this week with an upset victory under their belt and will bring plenty of confidence. Georgia State, however, will be ready. They are making their home opener with fans in attendance, so home field advantage will be in full swing. While most of their key players from last season are returning, redshirt freshman quarterback Cornelious Brown IV and the Panthers’ new running back will be eager to prove themselves. The key to this game will be Georgia State’s poor run defense’s ability to stop Louisiana’s run-heavy offense, and while this will not be easy, the Panthers will put up a fight. Expect Louisiana to underestimate Georgia State out of the gate, and for the game to be far closer than the spread suggests. Georgia State has a lot to prove this week against a ranked opponent, so expect a good fight.

Name: Jack Kramer

Pick: Panthers +9 and Vikings +3

Analysis:  Tampa Bay needs a month with Brady and Carolina is going to score.  Indy just lost to Jacksonville.  Enough said.

(yeah this picture still looks weird)