Previewing Central Michigan
By: Bradley Smart
Since opening the season with a win on the road, the Boston College football team has dropped three straight, with two of the losses coming to AP Top-25 teams. The Eagles (1-3) recent struggles have come in a variety of ways – a failure to contain dual-threat quarterbacks, for one, as well as simply running out of gas at the end of the last game.
They’ll welcome in a MAC opponent in Central Michigan, a team that’s dropped two in a row, and has failed to give Boston College trouble in the past. The Chippewas (2-2) are winless in three prior meetings with the Eagles, the most recent a 31-10 loss in 2009.
Here’s a breakdown of Saturday’s game, including key matchups and a prediction.
When the Eagles run the ball
Boston College has relied mainly on two running backs through the first four games, as was expected, but they’ve struggled to find any consistency. They rank 106th in rushing success rate and are averaging just over three yards per carry. The Eagles were held to just 97 yards and a measly 2.85 yards per carry against Clemson’s stout defense, but should be able to find success against a much easier Central Michigan front. Freshmen A.J. Dillon had a team-high 18 carries last week, going for 57 yards and a touchdown, while junior Jon Hilliman had nine attempts for 33 yards. Hilliman had over 500 rushing yards a season ago, but it appears the bigger Dillon is here to stay. Boston College has a very predictable offense, running on standard downs over 60% of the time, and it’s resulted in a stuff rate of 24%, over five percentage points higher than the national average. The Chippewas are 83rd in the country in rushing defense, conceding almost five yards per carry. They also lack a strong defensive line, posting a below-average stuff rate, and regular concede big plays — 22 rushing plays have gone for 10-plus yards through four games.
EDGE: Eagles
When the Eagles throw the ball
This season, Boston College head coach Steve Addazio decided to up the pace. The Eagles jumped from 115th in plays per game to 15th, but it hasn’t necessarily been for the better. With redshirt freshmen quarterback Anthony Brown (and occasionally Darius Wade), Boston College is averaging just 4.6 yards per passing attempt, good for second to last in the country. Brown is young and learning as he goes, and a brutal schedule definitely hasn’t helped. Teams don’t fear the passing game, allowing them to stack the box and really cause problems with getting a run game going. Regularly forced into third down and a passing situation, the Eagles have thrown the ball and earned a first down just 11 times in 52 attempts. Unfortunately for Brown, the Chippewas enter with a ballhawking secondary that has held opposing quarterbacks to below the national average in success rate. They rank 110th in passing yards allowed per game, but rank 43rd in opposing quarterback rating due to nine interceptions, a mark that’s second in the country. Last week’s loss to Miami (Ohio) was the first game Central Michigan failed to intercept a pass (two were called off due to penalties), but should take advantage of Brown — he has seven interceptions to five touchdowns through three games.
EDGE: Chippewas
When the Chippewas run the ball
CMU has also struggled to get a strong run game going, ranking 85th in yards per game. They use a workhorse in sophomore Jonathan Ward, who’s averaging five yards a carry and has almost 300 rushing yards on the season. Short-distance back Devon Spalding has a pair of rushing touchdowns, and quarterback Shane Morris has shown a bit of a running game, averaging almost 30 rushing yards a game. Morris is able to pull the ball down, escape the pocket, and run with it. Luckily for an Eagles rushing defense that ranks near the bottom, he isn’t a traditional dual-threat quarterback. They’ve had their hands full with the likes of John Wofford, Brandon Wimbush, and Kelly Bryant. Boston College was able to mostly contain the run through the first three quarters against Clemson last week, but eventually broke down. The difference? CMU doesn’t have two future NFL linemen blocking, so a strong Eagles linebacker corps and a big game from Harold Landry should help contain. Lacking a star running back, the Chippewas rely more on the passing game.
EDGE: Eagles
When the Chippewas pass the ball
The Boston College secondary has played excellently lately. Granted, opponents have found success on the ground and stuck with it, but the Eagles have held opposing quarterbacks to a sub-100 passer rating, good for 16th in the country. Ballhawking safety Lukas Denis is tied for second in the country with three interceptions, anchoring a pass defense that sits holds opponents to a below-average success rate. They’ll have their hands full with Morris, a former four-star recruit who transferred from Michigan. A southpaw with a strong arm, Morris guides an offense that ranks 30th in the country in passing explosiveness. Averaging seven yards an attempt, Morris has nine touchdowns to five interceptions in four games. He exploded for five touchdowns and 467 passing yards in a win against Kansas earlier this year, but will have his hands full on Saturday. Without three of his top receivers and a starting tight end, Morris has found a new favorite target in Mark Chapman. Averaging over 15 yards per catch, Chapman has three touchdowns and has been targeted by his quarterback a team-high 28% of the time.
EDGE: Eagles
Special Teams
Part of the reason Boston College was able to hold Clemson to just seven points through three quarters was the excellent play of punter Mike Knoll. Knoll pinned six punts inside Clemson’s 10-yard line, averaging almost 43 yards per punt to help his team win the early field position battle. The Eagles also have a reliable kicker in Colton Litchenberg, who is 6-for-6 on extra points and 6-for-7 on field goals, the miss a 43-yarder against Clemson. Kick and punt returner Michael Walker has excelled, averaging almost 25 yards per kick return and 13 on punt returns. Overall, the Eagles rank 21st in special teams S&P+, a measure of the value provided. On the other side of the field, Central Michigan ranks 60th. Kicker Michael Armstrong hasn’t missed in 11 extra points, but is 0-for-2 in field goal attempts beyond 40 yards. Knoll has competition in Chippewas punter Jack Sheldon, a junior who averages 46 yards per punt and results in a fair catch or inside the 20 around 60% of the time. Central Michigan has used a variety of returners, but none that jump out.
EDGE: Eagles
My prediction: Eagles 24, Chippewas 14
Cover photo from Joe Robbins/Getty Images America