Examining the Eagles: Football Edition
by Quinn Kelly
This will be a three-part breakdown of what you need to know about your Eagles heading into the 2016 football season. In Parts 1 and 2, I’ll give you a look at either side of the ball; the changes, the new faces, and who’s poised to produce. In the final installment, I’ll give you a game by game prediction of the upcoming season, culminating in what the unbiased observer may deem a pretty optimistic win-loss prediction. Fair warning here, I’m no Tommy Heinsohn level homer, but I tend to look at the disaster of a 2015 Eagles football season through a rose-colored lens. So, if you’re a BC-hater or you’ve just spent too much time burying your head in your hands at the games to come out and see the bright side, enter at your own risk.
Part One: The Defense
It seems only fair to begin with one of the few (and admittedly, perhaps only) positives of last year’s campaign. And of course, it would make sense part ONE would focus on the former NUMBER ONE DEFENSE IN THE COUNTRY. It will be eternally lost in the gloom of the 2015 season how special and truly ridiculous what that defense did was. This was a squad that had not one damn blue chip prospect on the roster, yet still managed to come together to form the single best unit in the nation. Throughout the offseason, I had to constantly defend my Eagles to friends from other schools (and unfortunately, some from BC, too) whenever they were baited in by the ESPN headlines that shamed us for our defeated ACC season. Without going to the games or following the team, how could you know how good this defense was? How could you know that our offense surrendered more points when it was on the field due to pick sixes and fumble recoveries returned for TDs over the course of the season than did our defense? Simply, you couldn’t. So, I’m here to remind you that just because ESPN couldn’t fit all that in a headline, doesn’t mean it didn’t happen. And I will die on the hill that says last year’s team would have 100% gone 7-5, if not 8-4, and gone bowling if they hadn’t seen literally every key player on the offense injured at one point or another and their two cornerstones (Wade/Hilliman) gone for the majority of the season. That’s how freaking good this defense was. But I digress…
Let’s dive into what’s going to differentiate this year’s squad from last year’s.
Departures:
The defense loses 5 guys to graduation this year, 4 of whom started for the Eagles last year. The 4 starters all made it to NFL rosters this summer, including 2 by way of the draft. Nobody in the group was a standout in the big league’s eyes in the way that former defensive first-rounders like Luke Kuechly and Matthias Kiwanuka were, but that’s less of a knock and more of a round of applause for these guys playing above their deemed value last year.
First on the list is safety Justin Simmons. Simmons was one of the biggest pieces of the defense last year, leading the team in interceptions on the field (5) and being a vocal leader off. Simmons also finished third on the team in total tackles with 67. There’s no denying that he was the stud of the defense last year. This is evidenced by him going in the 3rd round to Denver in the draft last April. But where I think Justin is sorely missed is in his veteran presence. You listened to him in interviews and you just knew that he was a kid who’d seen it all, taken it in, and knew how to captain the ship. He’s as much of a hit to the locker room as he is to the backend of the defense.
Next is linebacker Steven Daniels. The only other Eagle to be drafted (WSH 7th RD, 232), Daniels can make a case for being as sorely missed as Simmons. As the season went on last year, Daniels emerged as a vocal leader and a playmaker of the highest order on the field. He led the team in tackles with 82 and was second in tackles for loss (16) and sacks (6.0). Daniels was a force at middle linebacker, anchoring the best defense in the nation.
Mehdi Abdesmad is one of three losses on the Eagles D-line. The defensive end took his talents to the Tennessee Titans after making 49 tackles for the Eagles last year, 15 of which were for loss and 5.5 of which were sacks. Abdesmad was a train coming off the end and was an integral part of a very strong front four.
Another part of that front four was Connor Wujciak. Wujciak didn’t have as flashy of numbers (31 tackles, 11 TFL, 4.5 sacks), but he was a plug up the middle over the center. Guys who are 6-3 and 300 lbs that can move like Connor do not just grow on trees. So, while the Eagles will certainly find someone to cover his statistical production, they’ll be hard pressed to find that big a body to push the run game to the outside.
Finally, it was hello and goodbye for graduate transfer and rotational member of the D-line, Evan Kelly. Kelly made just 3 tackles for the Eagles this past season.
Biggest Loss:
The biggest loss on defense isn’t someone who suited up in pads for the Eagles last year. Sure, the Denver Broncos 3rd round, 98th overall pick Justin Simmons is a tough player to replace, but BC makes a habit of turning out a defensive stud or two a year. The true MVP of the defense last year, and by all accounts the lifeblood of the Eagles squad, was coordinator Don Brown. Brown departed this offseason, aimed at greener pastures and the Harbaugh-UMichigan reclamation project. No sour grapes here, congrats to Don and best of luck to him, but he’s a departure that really stings for the Eagles. To the casual fan, it’s almost impossible to overstate the impact Brown had on this team last year and in years prior. This is a man who rallied a bunch of guys who had to watch their teammates put up a goose egg on Wake Forest, and give up more points than they scored to nearly everyone else, to become the number 1 defense in the country. So while I believe (and you should, too) that new Simmonses/Daniels/Abdesmads/Wujciaks will rise up this year, I simply can’t imagine the second coming of Don Brown donning a headset for the Eags this year. It’ll be up to newcomer Jim Reid to take a unit taught the way by Brown and simply nurture their growth.
How Does the Defense Fill Absences:
For those of you concerned that this defense can’t replicate their 2015 campaign, I say relax. This defense is going to be just fine. While the defense did lose 4 starters, it really isn’t as bad as it was for some of the other top defenses; namely ACC foe Clemson who seemingly lost every play maker to graduation or the draft. Last year we had a relatively young defense that should only benefit from getting another year under their belt. To get a good idea of what the changes will look like, let’s line up the typical starting defense from last year with the projected one for this season:
Taking it a positional group at a time, the area of least concern is the one with arguably the biggest single absence. Despite losing Simmons, I expect the secondary to be rock solid this year. On the corners, Kamrin Moore and Isaac Yiadom both showed flashes of brilliance last year and will continue to produce moving into their upperclassman years. John Johnson returns as another guy who really put his name on the map last year, and will only be hungrier to prove his worth to the NFL in his senior season. The question mark would of course be Simmons’s replacement, William Harris. Harris didn’t see a lack of action as a freshman last year though, appearing in all 12 games and finishing the year with 20 tackles. That’s pretty good for a true freshman on a top defense. Entering his sophomore year, along with the move from #41 to #8, expect Harris to move from being a rotational cog to a big time player. Should you expect Harris to play at the same level as Justin Simmons did? No, but with a solid corps around him he will certainly be picked up. Bet high on the sophomore.
The linebacking core, to me, is a similar situation. Milano and Schwab return on the outside and will only get better. Connor Strachan takes over for Steven Daniels and *hot take alert* will be as good if not better than Daniels. This kid is one of the fastest linebackers in the country and can hit. He was strong in more limited time last year and should blossom into a full-fledged star with the starting role this year. Behind that, the depth of the group is largely unproven, with the back-ups Kevin Bletzer, Mike Strizak, and Sharrief Grice seeing very limited action last year.
The most concerning area is the defensive line (and really, it isn’t particularly concerning). As I pointed out with the size of Wujciak and the skill of Abdesmad, the replacement of half your line is tough. You’re also trading off having a senior-senior pairing on one side of the line with having a junior-sophomore pairing (Noa Merritt and Zach Allen respectively). Merritt and Allen have had pretty solid summers, looking great in intersquad match-ups, but both suffer from a severe lack of experience in-season. This is where the Eagles will look to senior Kevin Kavalec and more-experienced sophomore Wyatt Ray to provide depth and steady hand in-game. Also, look for Gutapfel to really be a force this season; for what it’s worth, Addazio is really high on him.
Looking as a whole and reflecting on the departing pieces, replacement shouldn’t be too difficult. The four starters who have left combined for a shade under 33% of the teams total tackles last year. This is really on par with what you should expect from any random grouping of 4 of the 11 defenders. Where the concern grows as we move towards the trenches is with the absence of impact plays. The combination of Abdesmad/Wujciak/Daniels made up for almost half of the teams sacks last year (47%). It’s hard to say whether it was guys who had a nose for the big plays or just seeing the most time in roles that produce them. My money is that given those starting roles, Merritt, Allen, and Strachan will cover their numbers, but it’s no guarantee.
Who’s Gonna Step Up:
Easy pick here is Connor Strachan. He’s been a beast all summer and really has all the intangibles. He has some of the biggest shoes to fill and he will flourish in the opportunity. He was already the second leading tackler last year (behind Daniels). Look for him to have somewhere around 120 tackles, 20 TFL, and 7.5 sacks. (High? Yes. Unreasonable? No.)
Defensive MVP:
The popular pick that I’ve seen here is Matt Milano. Our own Anthony Iati picked him in his season preview and it’s absolutely a great pick. I’m going to look elsewhere on the defense, though, and go with Harold Landry. There are plenty of guys that have a ton of skill on the defense, but what makes me choose Landry has more to do with his off the field demeanor. A tweet that Landry fired off in the wake of a wave of offensive players transferring out of BC told me all I needed to know about him:
Landry loves BC. He embodies what this program is about. He has enough pride in this school that anything less than an MVP type year on BC’s path to redemption will not do. Look for him to lead the team in sacks.
Breakout Player of the Year:
Though he already had a bit of a coming out party last year, eyes were off the program to an extent when Isaac Yiadom started to establish himself as a big player. He will make sure you’re talking about him as a stud on D by the end of the year. He will be a key part of a lockdown secondary.
Also, outta nowhere type pick here: keep an eye on Lukas Dennis. Dennis isn’t particularly high on the depth chart, and is just a sophomore behind a seasoned secondary. But after watching this kid through his high school years, I’ve learned that he is a straight playmaker with an uncanny nose for the ball. Is he going to be an impact player on this defense? No. But I’d put money on people knowing his name by the end of the year because of a huge play (a la Sherm Alston 2014).
Final note, John Johnson and Truman Gutapfel have been named the defensive captains.
That’ll about wrap up the defensive preview. If you’re not exhausted already, stay tuned for the final two parts of Examining the Eagles, the offensive preview and season prediction.